Excavator sales data were released in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 13.7%. The overseas market continued to grow at a high speed. In August, the excavator industry sold 18075 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 13.7%. Among them, domestic (including Hong Kong and Macao) sales of 12349 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 31.7%, and export of 5726 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of+100%. The overseas market continued to grow at a high speed.
In terms of structure, in August, 6736/3670/1943 units were sold for small, medium, and large excavation, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 33.6%/- 31.9%/- 23.6%.
Looking forward to the whole year, we still maintain a growth expectation of 10% - 15% for excavator sales: According to our calculations, under pessimistic/neutral/optimistic conditions, when the domestic sales growth of excavator in July to December is respectively - 25%/- 20%/- 15%, and the export growth is respectively maintained at+70%/+85%/+100%, the annual excavator sales are expected to remain between 360000 and 380000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of+10% - 16%.
Forecast of excavator sales volume by month in 2021: It is expected that the annual excavator sales volume will show a trend of top high, middle low, and tail up.
Looking forward to the whole year, we maintain a growth expectation of 11% - 16% for excavator sales: 1) Under optimistic circumstances, assuming that the growth rate of excavator domestic sales in August to December narrows from - 20% to 0%, and exports maintain a growth rate of 50-80%, then the annual sales volume will remain+16%, and the sales volume in August to December will be+0.5% year-on-year; 2) Under a neutral scenario, assuming that the growth rate of domestic sales of excavators in August to December narrowed from - 25% to - 5%, and exports maintained a growth rate of 40-75%, the annual sales volume remained+13.82%, while the sales volume in August to December remained - 4.6% year-on-year; 3) Under a pessimistic scenario, assuming that the growth rate of domestic sales of excavators in August and December has narrowed from - 25% to - 15%, and exports maintain a growth rate of 30-75%, the annual sales volume will remain+11%, and the sales volume in August and December will remain - 11.4% year-on-year.
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